Fitch sees no sign of strategic default for rising principal reductions

In addition, Fitch has assigned an Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of ‘AA’ to the authority and. However, the authority has very limited revenue raising flexibility with no independent taxing authority.

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The ratings agency cites a Fannie May survey indicating that just 10 percent of respondents condone strategic default for underwater homeowners. However, a widespread principal reduction strategy may sway some homeowners’ opinions, Fitch suggests.

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Few, if any, borrowers strategically defaulted to take advantage of mortgage servicer relief under the $25 billion settlement struck in March, according to Fitch Ratings.

As underwater borrowers strategically default, lenders are trying different methods for holding back the rising tide. Loan modifications have postponed some foreclosures, and principal reductions might postpone a few more. The value in doing a few principal reductions goes beyond the money spent.

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The risk of strategic defaults comes not from people delinquent in their payments but from businesspeople who look at the principal due, see no hope that the value of the home will rise substantially for decades, and see that the home is worth less than half the mortgage claimed. No reasonable business person would maintain the status quo.

principal reductions can have a positive impact on the market by preventing some foreclosures. However, Fitch maintains the issue of principal reductions is not a simple "yes" or "no" question, and "if not implemented carefully, a wide-ranging principal reduction program could potentially increase defaults among borrowers who would otherwise remain current."